Agricultural Transformation: CCM's Vision for Food Security and Exports

By Uchumi360 Economics Desk

DAR ES SALAAM — As Tanzania approaches its 2025 general elections, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party's manifesto presents an audacious plan to revolutionize agriculture, positioning it as the engine of food security and export growth. The document highlights a leap in irrigation coverage from 561,383 hectares in 2020 to 983,466 hectares in 2024, boosting food self-sufficiency from 114% to 128%. With a bold target to expand irrigated land to 5 million hectares by 2030 and introduce 10,000 tractors on credit, CCM aims to transform Tanzania into a net food exporter. But can this vision withstand climate challenges and funding constraints?

The manifesto’s foundation builds on recent gains. The increase in irrigation has lifted crop yields, with maize production rising 18% and rice 22% from 2020 to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. This has stabilized domestic food prices, a key factor in keeping inflation at 3.1% in 2024, and supported rural livelihoods where 65% of Tanzanians work. The introduction of 5,000 tractors since 2020, coupled with subsidies on fertilizers that cut costs by 10% in 2023, has mechanized farming, enhancing productivity. Independent data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates agricultural GDP growth at 5.5% annually, aligning with CCM’s narrative of a sector poised for takeoff.

Looking forward, the plan emphasizes value addition to boost exports. The manifesto outlines the construction of 15 new processing factories for coffee, tea, and cashews by 2030, aiming to increase export revenues from $6 billion in 2024 to $10 billion. The blue economy initiative targets fish production to grow from 800,000 tons in 2025 to 2 million tons by 2030, with clove and seaweed exports projected to add $500 million annually. Economic multipliers suggest that every 1% growth in agriculture lifts 1.5% of the population out of poverty, potentially reducing Tanzania’s 26% poverty rate by 5-7% if targets are met. The African Development Bank supports this, forecasting a $2 billion forex boost from agro-exports by 2029.

The strategy leverages technology and finance. CCM plans to deploy satellite monitoring for weather patterns and AI-driven soil analysis to optimize yields, aligning with global Green Revolution principles. Low-interest loans for smallholder farmers, backed by a $1 billion credit facility, aim to scale operations, while 33 new markets and 34 bus stands will improve access to domestic and regional markets under AfCFTA. The Tanzania Private Sector Foundation (TPSF) notes that similar investments increased farmer incomes by 20% in pilot regions, suggesting a scalable model.

Yet, challenges loom large. Climate change poses the greatest threat, with 2023’s El Niño drought slashing output by 15% and raising food import costs. The manifesto’s irrigation expansion and national food reserve, requiring $2 billion annually, strain Tanzania’s 40% debt-to-GDP ratio. The World Bank warns that without $500 million in annual climate financing, 30% of the irrigation goal could falter. Funding gaps aside, land tenure disputes and low mechanization rates, only 5% of farmers use tractors could slow progress. The East African Community (EAC) Secretariat highlights Kenya’s 7% agricultural growth as a benchmark, pressuring Tanzania to accelerate.

Despite these hurdles, the potential is transformative. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that successful implementation could lift agricultural exports to 25% of GDP by 2030, up from 18%, creating 2 million jobs.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s promise to “ensure food security and economic empowerment” resonates with rural communities, where 70% lack reliable water access. If CCM delivers, Tanzania could emerge as East Africa’s breadbasket, enhancing forex reserves and setting a model for sustainable agriculture