China, EAC Lead Positive Economic Influence in Tanzania — But Trust is Slipping

Tanzanians view their economic future as shaped as much by external powers as by domestic policy. A new Afrobarometer survey finds that China and the East African Community (EAC) each enjoy a 61% positive approval rating in terms of their economic influence in Tanzania. The African Union (57%) and SADC (54%) also score well, while traditional Western powers trail: the US (47%), the European Union (45%), and India (42%). Russia, by contrast, barely registers with just 25% approval. But beneath the surface of these numbers lies a critical shift: while China remains influential, its once unchallenged position as Tanzania’s most trusted partner is weakening. The China paradox China’s presence in Tanzania is visible everywhere, from the Standard Gauge Railway to roads, hospitals, and government buildings. Over the past two decades, Chinese loans and investments have financed billions of dollars in infrastructure, making Beijing Tanzania’s most important non-African economic partner. Yet the Afrobarometer data reveal a loss of enthusiasm. In 2021, 75% of Tanzanians rated China’s influence positively. By 2024, that figure had fallen to 61%. At the same time, those who consider China’s economic influence “substantial” declined from 64% to 55%. This decline suggests that Tanzanians are becoming more skeptical of debt burdens, project sustainability, and the limited local job creation linked to Chinese-funded projects. What was once viewed as a lifeline is increasingly seen through a more pragmatic and cautious lens. Regional institutions retain trust In contrast, the EAC’s 61% approval underscores Tanzanians’ belief in the benefits of regional integration. The EAC provides Tanzania with direct access to over 200 million consumers and has supported a tripling of intra-African trade from $0.9 billion in 2004 to $3 billion in 2020. Still, the survey also shows that Tanzanians are impatient. Despite broad support for the EAC, 65% of citizens say they prefer global trade partnerships rather than an Africa-only focus. Regionalism remains important, but it is not enough to satisfy aspirations for jobs and opportunities. The West’s underperformance Western partners appear to be losing the battle for influence. The US and EU—longstanding providers of aid and investment—score below 50%. Their investments in Tanzania, while substantial, are often perceived as slower, more conditional, and less visible than China’s high-profile infrastructure projects. India’s low score (42%) is striking, given that it is one of Tanzania’s largest export destinations, particularly for gold and cashews. This points to a disconnect: strong trade flows are not translating into positive perceptions. Implications for policy For Tanzania, these shifting perceptions carry weight. Public opinion matters in shaping legitimacy for foreign policy, particularly as the country positions itself for industrialisation and economic transformation. The key lessons are: China remains vital, but Tanzanians want fairer terms, more local jobs, technology transfer, and sustainable financing. Regional integration retains strong support, but it must deliver faster on efficiency and growth. The West risks irrelevance unless it adapts its approach, investing in visible, job-creating sectors like manufacturing and renewable energy. A new balancing act Tanzania’s leaders will need to balance these external relationships carefully. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has already taken steps to re-engage with the West while maintaining strong ties with China. Her administration’s strategy appears aligned with the public mood: diversify partnerships, avoid overdependence, and maximise leverage in negotiations. For Tanzanians, the ideal outcome is not choosing one partner over another, but using all to advance their economic aspirations. The Afrobarometer data show that citizens are pragmatic, cautious, and globally minded. The era of blind trust in a single partner is over; the era of strategic balancing has begun.