From Darling to Doubt: Tanzanians’ Waning Confidence in China’s Economic Role

For nearly two decades, China was seen as Tanzania’s indispensable economic partner. Roads, ports, hospitals, and railways, many of the country’s most visible modern projects bear Beijing’s imprint. Yet according to the latest Afrobarometer survey, Tanzanians’ once unshakable faith in China is slipping. In 2021, 75% of Tanzanians rated China’s economic influence positively. By 2024, that figure had fallen to 61%. At the same time, those who believe China’s influence is “substantial” dropped from 64% to 55%. While still strong, this erosion suggests a profound shift: Tanzanians are no longer willing to accept Chinese involvement at face value. The debt question China’s financing of Tanzania’s infrastructure boom has been both a blessing and a burden. Projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), port expansions, and energy plants have been central to the country’s modernization. Yet much of this investment has come in the form of loans, pushing Tanzania’s external debt past $42 billion by 2025. Citizens are asking the obvious: are these loans sustainable? And are they worth the price if the benefits, such as local jobs, technology transfer, and long-term industrial gains, remain elusive? Jobs promised, jobs missing One of the strongest critiques emerging from Tanzania’s streets is the lack of employment opportunities for locals in Chinese-funded projects. Construction sites, often dominated by imported labour and machinery, leave Tanzanian workers sidelined. Afrobarometer data hints at this dissatisfaction: while China’s infrastructure is visible, its direct impact on livelihoods is less so. By contrast, Tanzanians place a higher value on trade partnerships that create opportunities for small businesses, farmers, and startups. It is no coincidence that 59% of citizens say they want the government to promote external trade, while scepticism grows toward foreign projects that bypass the local economy. Perception gap with the West What makes the China story sharper is the comparative decline of Western influence. While the US (47%) and EU (45%) score lower in approval, their model of slower but more targeted investment is viewed differently. Western partners often invest in governance, education, and renewable energy, sectors with indirect but broader impact. Tanzanians may not always see them as immediately transformative, but the Chinese model of “big projects, big debt” is increasingly under scrutiny. A turning point for Tanzania This shift matters because public opinion shapes the political space for economic diplomacy. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has already shown signs of recalibration, seeking to diversify partnerships by courting American and European investors while maintaining ties with Beijing. The Afrobarometer survey strengthens the case for this balancing act: Tanzanians are no longer satisfied with dependency on one partner. Lessons for China If Beijing wants to maintain its edge in Tanzania, it must pivot: Prioritize local jobs by mandating higher Tanzanian participation in Chinese projects. Support SMEs instead of focusing exclusively on large-scale infrastructure. Improve transparency in loan agreements to reduce suspicion of debt traps. Invest in sectors Tanzanians value most, agriculture, manufacturing, and technology. The bigger picture China is not losing Tanzania. But it is losing the unquestioned trust it once commanded. For Tanzanians, the narrative has shifted from gratitude to calculation: what is China giving in return for what it takes? That is why confidence is eroding. The “China darling” era is ending. What follows will be a more pragmatic, less forgiving partnership, one where Tanzanians expect Beijing to prove its worth, not just its presence.