Tanzania’s Exports Rise Above $21 billion, But Fuel Imports Widen the External Gap

Tanzania’s export earnings passed USD21 billion in the year ending September 2026, supported by gold, manufactured goods, tourism and the country’s growing role as a transport gateway for regional markets. The Bank of Tanzania’s October Monthly Economic Review puts exports of goods and services at USD21.07 billion, up 19.9 per cent from USD17.57 billion in the preceding 12 months. The increase added approximately USD3.50 billion to the country’s annual foreign-exchange earnings. The result is one of the clearest signs that Tanzania’s export economy is broadening beyond its traditional dependence on minerals and agricultural commodities. Manufactured exports grew strongly, while freight earnings from transit trade became an increasingly important source of services income. The external account, however, did not improve by the same margin. Imports of goods and services rose by 24 per cent to USD22.13 billion, outpacing export growth. Tanzania’s current-account deficit consequently widened by 27.6 per cent to USD2.40 billion, from USD1.88 billion a year earlier.  This is not a story of weak exports. It is a story of rapidly expanding exports being overtaken by an even stronger increase in the cost of fuel, machinery, industrial supplies, transport equipment and imported freight services. Three sectors produced most of the export increase Goods exports rose by 23.7 per cent to USD12.44 billion, while services receipts increased by 14.8 per cent to USD8.62 billion. Gold, manufactured goods and transport services accounted for roughly 82 per cent of the USD3.50 billion increase in total exports, based on Uchumi360 calculations using the central bank’s figures. Gold delivered the largest absolute gain. Earnings increased by USD1.40 billion, from USD4.43 billion to USD5.83 billion. Manufactured exports added approximately USD656 million, while transport-service receipts increased by about USD809 million. The concentration of the increase matters. Tanzania has more export engines than it did previously, but its foreign-exchange earnings remain heavily dependent on a relatively small number of activities. Gold alone accounted for approximately 47 per cent of goods exports and almost 28 per cent of total goods-and-services receipts. Gold, tourism and transport together generated close to two-thirds of all export earnings during the period. This means the external position remains exposed to international gold prices, global travel conditions, regional cargo demand and the competitiveness of Tanzania’s transport corridors. Gold provides a powerful but price-sensitive buffer Gold exports increased by 31.7 per cent, supported by favourable international prices and domestic production, according to the central bank. The rise gave Tanzania an important foreign-exchange buffer at a time when energy imports were becoming more expensive. Gold earnings also supported official reserves, alongside the Bank of Tanzania’s domestic gold-purchase programme.  The advantage of gold is its ability to produce large export receipts without depending on regional demand. When global investors seek safe-haven assets, higher bullion prices can substantially improve the earnings of gold-producing economies. The risk is that a significant part of the improvement can come from international pricing rather than a permanent increase in domestic productive capacity. If bullion prices retreat, export receipts can weaken even when mine output remains stable. The longer-term economic benefit will therefore depend on more than the headline export figure. It will also be shaped by local procurement, mineral processing, Tanzanian participation in mining supply chains, taxes, royalties and the amount of export revenue that enters the domestic financial system. A stronger mining-services industry covering engineering, maintenance, transport, laboratory services, equipment supply and environmental management would allow Tanzania to retain more value from every dollar of mineral exports. Manufactured exports offer the more structural signal Manufactured exports rose by 42.4 per cent to USD2.20 billion, from USD1.55 billion. The Bank of Tanzania attributed the increase partly to larger shipments of iron, steel and glassware.  This may be the most encouraging structural development in the report. Manufacturing can create broader domestic linkages than the export of unprocessed commodities. A competitive factory generates demand for electricity, transport, packaging, engineering, warehousing, finance, maintenance, technology and skilled labour. It can also provide a stable market for agricultural and mineral inputs produced within Tanzania. The performance strengthens Tanzania’s case for becoming a manufacturing and distribution base serving the East African Community, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Malawi and other regional markets. But gross manufactured-export value should not be treated as equal to domestic value addition. Some manufacturers depend heavily on imported machinery, fuel, chemicals, packaging or intermediate inputs. A factory may generate substantial export revenue while also requiring large foreign-currency payments to operate and expand. The economic gain is strongest where local inputs, skills and services form a significant share of production costs. The next level of analysis should therefore establish how much of the manufacturing increase came from higher production volumes, higher prices or re-exports; which regional markets absorbed the goods; and how much foreign currency was spent on imported inputs used to produce them. Export growth becomes more resilient when it is supported by strong domestic supply chains rather than by the processing or redistribution of highly import-dependent products. Tourism remains the largest service export, but growth was modest Services receipts rose by USD1.11 billion to USD8.62 billion. Tourism remained the largest component, earning USD4.57 billion in the year to September. That was 4.1 per cent higher than the USD4.39 billion recorded in the preceding period. The increase confirms tourism’s importance as one of Tanzania’s largest sources of foreign currency. Visitor spending supports hotels, tour operators, airlines, restaurants, cultural enterprises, transport providers, farmers and conservation-linked businesses. Yet tourism receipts grew much more slowly than transport-service income and manufactured exports. The figure alone does not show whether the improvement came from more visitors, higher expenditure per visitor, longer stays or exchange-rate changes. That distinction matters for strategy. A tourism sector can increase arrivals without generating an equivalent increase in earnings if visitors stay for fewer nights, use lower-cost accommodation or purchase a limited range of local services. Tanzania’s objective should therefore extend beyond attracting more travellers to increasing value per visitor. Opportunities include combining wildlife, beach, culture, meetings, wellness, sports and blue-economy products; increasing domestic sourcing by hotels; improving tourism links between Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar; and encouraging longer multi-destination itineraries. Transit freight is becoming a major foreign-exchange industry Transport-service receipts increased by 30.3 per cent to USD3.48 billion, from USD2.67 billion. The Bank of Tanzania linked the improvement to higher freight earnings associated with transit trade.  This places logistics alongside tourism and mining as one of Tanzania’s most important foreign-exchange industries. The Port of Dar es Salaam serves cargo destined for Zambia, Rwanda, Burundi, Malawi, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Freight moving through Tanzania creates revenue for port operators, railways, trucking companies, clearing agents, dry ports, warehouses, fuel suppliers, insurers, banks and digital logistics platforms. Transit cargo through Dar es Salaam reportedly increased by 17 per cent to 14.61 million tonnes in the 2025/26 financial year. DRC-bound cargo rose to 7.77 million tonnes, Rwanda-bound traffic reached 2.18 million tonnes, and Zambia accounted for approximately 3.41 million tonnes.  The figures indicate that Tanzania is earning more from its geographic position, not only from commodities produced within its borders. That advantage is not guaranteed. Landlocked importers and exporters can choose among Dar es Salaam, Mombasa, Beira, Nacala, Lobito and other corridors. Their decisions are influenced by total transport cost, port dwell time, customs predictability, railway availability, border efficiency, cargo security and the reliability of inland delivery. Tanzania will retain regional freight only if infrastructure investment is matched by efficient operations. Port capacity without predictable clearance and inland connections can merely shift congestion from the quay to roads, dry ports or borders. The expansion of standard-gauge and metre-gauge rail services, dry-port capacity and digital cargo systems will therefore influence whether the latest increase becomes sustained market share. Petroleum absorbed more than a third of the additional import bill Imports of goods and services increased by USD4.29 billion during the 12 months. Petroleum products alone accounted for approximately USD1.60 billion or 37 per cent of that increase. The petroleum import bill rose by 72.3 per cent to USD3.81 billion, from USD2.21 billion. Fuel represented about one-fifth of all goods imports, according to the central bank. The Bank of Tanzania attributed the increase to elevated international prices associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  Petroleum creates external pressure at several levels. First, importers need dollars to purchase refined products. Second, shipping, insurance and financing add to the foreign-currency cost. Third, a weaker shilling raises the local-currency amount required to settle the same dollar invoice. The impact then spreads throughout the domestic economy. Diesel affects trucking, farming equipment, construction machinery, mining operations, fishing vessels, generators and public transport. Petrol influences personal and commercial mobility, while kerosene remains important to some households and enterprises. This means a high petroleum bill can erode part of the advantage generated by exporters. A manufacturer may earn more dollars from regional sales while spending more to import inputs and distribute finished products. A safari operator can record higher visitor revenue but face rising costs for vehicles, airport transfers, generators and food supplies. Reducing petroleum exposure does not require an unrealistic assumption that Tanzania can quickly eliminate fuel imports. It requires steadily lowering the amount of imported fuel needed for each unit of economic output. Rail freight, efficient public transport, natural-gas use where commercially viable, electric mobility, energy-efficient equipment and better urban logistics can all reduce the economy’s fuel intensity over time. Not all import growth is a warning sign The higher import bill should not be interpreted entirely as economic weakness. Industrial supplies increased to USD5.84 billion. Imports of machinery and mechanical appliances rose from USD1.12 billion to USD1.57 billion, while industrial transport equipment increased from USD1.24 billion to USD1.62 billion. Electrical machinery and equipment rose from USD483 million to USD712 million. The Bank of Tanzania said the rise in intermediate and capital-goods imports was consistent with strong public and private investment and manufacturing growth.  A developing economy normally imports machinery, industrial equipment and technology before the resulting factories, mines, farms or infrastructure begin producing additional output. Such imports may widen the external deficit in the short term while expanding export capacity later. The economic test is what those imports eventually produce. Machinery used for export manufacturing, agro-processing, mining development, energy infrastructure or efficient transport can generate future foreign-currency earnings and substitute for other imports. Imported equipment used in projects with weak commercial returns may instead create debt, maintenance and foreign-exchange obligations without a corresponding increase in national income. The composition, productivity and financing of imports therefore matter as much as their total value. Services prevented a much larger external deterioration Tanzania’s goods-trade deficit widened by USD1.64 billion to USD6.24 billion as goods imports rose faster than goods exports. The services account moved in the opposite direction. Its surplus increased by USD856 million to USD5.17 billion, offsetting roughly half of the deterioration in the goods balance. After combining goods and services, Tanzania recorded a deficit of USD1.07 billion, compared with USD280 million in the previous year. The current account also includes income paid to and received from abroad, as well as transfers. The primary-income account, which captures items including investment income and payments to non-residents, recorded a USD2.09 billion deficit. The secondary-income account produced a USD761 million surplus, supported by higher personal transfers. Together, these flows resulted in the USD2.40 billion current-account deficit.  This explains why the current-account number cannot be understood simply by subtracting exports from imports. Tanzania’s strong tourism and transport earnings substantially reduce the goods deficit, while payments to foreign investors and lenders add another layer of external demand. The monthly position was also stronger than the rolling annual figure suggests. Tanzania recorded a USD421 million current-account surplus in September alone, supported by higher goods and services receipts. A single month should not be treated as a lasting reversal, but it shows how strongly the balance can respond when export earnings rise. Reserves remain adequate, but import growth reduces the margin for error Gross official foreign-exchange reserves stood at USD6.03 billion at the end of September, sufficient to cover 4.3 months of projected imports of goods and services. The central bank said this remained above the national adequacy benchmark.  The reserve position does not indicate an immediate external-payments crisis. It does, however, underline the importance of maintaining export receipts and attracting stable capital inflows when import demand is expanding quickly. Reserve adequacy is measured partly in months of imports. If imports rise faster than reserves, the same dollar stock provides fewer months of protection even when the nominal reserve figure remains unchanged. The shilling averaged TSh2,654.91 against the dollar in September, marginally stronger than in August but 7.4 per cent weaker than a year earlier. The Bank of Tanzania said the annual comparison was partly affected by the shilling’s sharp appreciation in September 2025.  For exporters earning dollars, depreciation can increase local-currency revenue. For import-dependent firms, it raises replacement costs, debt-service expenses and the shilling price of fuel, machinery, pharmaceuticals and industrial inputs. Businesses exposed to both sides of the currency equation should manage their dollar receipts and obligations together. Exporters with imported inputs should not assume that a weaker shilling is automatically beneficial, while importers should review contract periods, pricing formulas and foreign-currency requirements before committing to long-term quotations. Credit is expanding quickly, but money remains expensive Private-sector credit increased by 34.2 per cent to TSh56.36 trillion in September. Credit to transport and communications grew by 78.3 per cent, followed by trade at 52.5 per cent and agriculture at 41.9 per cent. Lending to mining, construction, hotels and restaurants and manufacturing also increased.  The sectoral pattern broadly corresponds with the expansion in cargo, trade, investment and production reflected in the external accounts. Rapid credit growth can finance vehicles, machinery, inventories, warehouses, farms and factories. It can therefore support the next stage of export expansion. It can also increase imports immediately because many investment goods must be purchased abroad before they produce revenue. Financing costs remain a constraint. The overall lending rate increased to 15.54 per cent in September, while the negotiated rate for prime borrowers reached 12.03 per cent.  At those rates, businesses need strong productivity gains and reliable cash flow. Borrowing to finance low-margin, import-dependent activity can become difficult when interest costs, fuel prices and currency movements rise simultaneously. Exporters with long payment cycles should pay particular attention to working-capital costs. Logistics operators should assess whether higher cargo volumes are producing adequate returns after vehicle, fuel, maintenance and financing expenses. The policy challenge is to increase net foreign-exchange value The export figures confirm that Tanzania has several functioning sources of foreign currency: minerals, manufacturing, tourism and regional logistics. The next policy challenge is to ensure that every dollar of export growth generates more domestic income and requires fewer imported inputs. For manufacturing, this means stronger local supplier networks, dependable electricity, industrial skills, affordable finance and efficient standards certification. For tourism, it means increasing visitor spending, length of stay and domestic sourcing—not only arrivals. For transport, it means converting infrastructure investment into faster, more predictable cargo movement and preserving Tanzania’s competitiveness against alternative corridors. For mining, it means expanding domestic processing and the participation of Tanzanian service providers. For energy, it means reducing exposure to imported petroleum through more efficient transport, increased rail use and commercially sound domestic energy alternatives. Tanzania’s export performance is a genuine economic achievement. The warning in the same data is that export success cannot be measured by receipts alone. The more durable indicator is whether foreign-currency earnings grow faster than the imported fuel, machinery, services and financing required to produce them. What to watch next The next external-sector releases should be assessed against six indicators: Whether manufactured exports continue growing after changes in global prices and regional demand. How much of the gold increase comes from production rather than bullion prices. Whether tourism earnings grow faster through higher visitor expenditure. Whether rising transit volumes translate into sustained freight income and corridor market share. Whether petroleum imports moderate as international prices and shipping conditions change. Whether reserves and the shilling remain stable as businesses increase demand for imported capital goods. If manufactured exports and transport receipts maintain their momentum while the petroleum bill moderates, the current-account gap could narrow without suppressing productive investment. If fuel costs remain elevated and imports continue growing faster than exports, Tanzania may keep recording impressive export numbers while still facing persistent pressure on foreign currency and the balance of payments.