Tanzania’s Population Boom: Demographic Goldmine or Economic Time Bomb?

By 2100, Tanzania is expected to be home to 263 million people, more than five times its current population. That projection, drawn from UN World Population Prospects, places the East African nation among the ten most populated countries on the planet—alongside giants like India, Nigeria, and the United States.

For Tanzania, this is not just a demographic milestone. It is an economic fork in the road. The sheer weight of numbers could transform the country into an African powerhouse, or drown it in poverty and instability.

The Scale of the Surge

Today, Tanzania’s population hovers around 67 million. Within a single lifetime, that number will quadruple. By the close of the century, Dar es Salaam is projected to become one of the world’s largest cities, rivalling Lagos and Jakarta, with more than 70 million residents.

Economically, such growth is a double-edged sword. A vast labour force and consumer base offer the prospect of industrial expansion, regional influence, and domestic market power. But they also demand jobs, food, housing, schools, and infrastructure on a scale the country has never managed before.

Lessons from the Region

Tanzania’s trajectory cannot be viewed in isolation.

• Kenya is growing too, but at a slower pace. Fertility rates there are falling faster, giving Nairobi more breathing space to invest in productivity rather than sheer survival.
• Ethiopia and Democratic Republic of Congo face demographic surges of similar intensity to Tanzania’s. In both cases, weak governance and underdeveloped infrastructure risk turning demographic potential into chaos.
• Nigeria, already Africa’s most populous nation, shows the warning signs: rapid growth without corresponding institutional strength produces sprawling slums, high unemployment, and social tension.

Tanzania sits at the crossroads between these paths.

The Global League of Populations

By 2100, the world’s demographic map will look radically different. India will remain the largest nation with 1.51 billion people, while China will shrink to 633 million, losing its long-held dominance. Pakistan will reach 511 million, Nigeria 477 million, and the Democratic Republic of Congo 431 million. The United States, despite slower growth, will still command 421 million, while Ethiopia hits 367 million, Indonesia 296 million, Tanzania 263 million, and Bangladesh 209 million. This list makes one fact unmistakable: the world’s demographic gravity is shifting firmly toward Africa.

The Economic Stakes

If managed well, Tanzania’s population boom could deliver a demographic dividend, a period when the working-age population outnumbers dependents, spurring productivity and growth. Economists estimate Tanzania’s economy could reach $180 billion by 2030, nearly triple today’s size. By mid-century, its GDP could climb into the global top 50.

But those projections hinge on difficult reforms. Tanzania’s informal sector still accounts for over 50% of employment, constraining tax revenue and productivity. Education quality lags, leaving many youths without marketable skills. And infrastructure, from power grids to transport corridors, remains underfunded.

The Risks of Inaction

Population growth without preparation is unforgiving.

• Youth unemployment could soar, turning a potential workforce into a source of unrest.
• Urban overcrowding could overwhelm Dar es Salaam and other cities, leading to slums and health crises.
• Resource stress, from water shortages to food insecurity could undercut stability.

This is the darker side of the demographic boom: a time bomb rather than a dividend.

What Must Be Done

Tanzania’s government faces a narrow window. To convert its population surge into an economic windfall, it must:

1. Formalise the economy: Bring millions of informal workers into the tax base and productivity cycle.
2. Invest in education and skills: A workforce of 200 million is worthless if undertrained.
3. Accelerate infrastructure buildout: Roads, power, ports, and housing must match urban growth.
4. Attract and retain investment: Both domestic and foreign capital will determine industrial capacity.
5. Strengthen institutions: Governance, anti-corruption, and stability are the foundation for any growth model.

A Global Context

By 2100, while China’s population shrinks and India stabilizes, Africa will be the only region still expanding. Tanzania’s rise to 263 million places it at the heart of that transformation.

The question is whether it will be counted among the winners, an African giant alongside Nigeria and Ethiopia—or remembered as a country that let its numbers outgrow its capacity.

For now, Tanzania’s future is not written in its fertility rates. It is written in its policies.