Employment Revolution: CCM's Pledge to Create 8.5 Million Jobs

By Uchumi360 Economics Desk

DAR ES SALAAM — As Tanzania heads toward its 2025 general elections, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party’s manifesto unveils an ambitious employment revolution, building on a robust track record. The document highlights the creation of 8,084,203 jobs between 2020 and 2024, with 87.96% in the informal sector, and commits to generating an additional 8.5 million jobs by 2030. Dubbed "Kazi na Utu, Tunasonga Mbele" (Work and Dignity, We Move Forward), this pledge targets the nation’s youthful population, where 65% are under 25, aiming to transform Tanzania into an economic powerhouse. But can this vision overcome structural challenges and global economic pressures?

The manifesto’s foundation rests on past successes. The surge in job creation reflects CCM’s focus on agriculture, construction, and tourism, sectors that absorbed the bulk of the workforce during the post-COVID recovery. Independent data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates Tanzania’s employment growth at 7.8 million from 2020 to 2024, slightly below CCM’s figure, suggesting some informal jobs may be underreported. The party attributes this growth to infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and irrigation expansion, which have spurred demand for labor. By 2024, irrigation coverage reached 983,466 hectares, up from 561,383 in 2020, supporting rural employment.

Looking ahead, CCM’s strategy hinges on formalizing the informal sector, where most jobs reside. The manifesto outlines vocational training for 1 million youth by 2030 and the construction of 33 new markets and 34 bus stands to enhance trade opportunities. A key pillar is financial empowerment, with low-interest loans totaling TZS 99.5 billion for women, TZS 45.1 billion for people with disabilities, and TZS 96.3 billion for youth. The Tanzania Private Sector Foundation (TPSF) reports that similar initiatives increased SME revenues by 25% in 2023, suggesting these funds could catalyze a similar multiplier effect, potentially creating 2 million formal jobs.

Labor economics offers a lens to assess feasibility. Okun’s Law suggests that sustaining the manifesto’s 7% GDP growth target could naturally yield 1.5-2% annual employment growth, translating to 6-7 million jobs by 2030. The additional 1.5 million jobs would require aggressive upskilling, as only 10% of Tanzanians have tertiary education, per World Bank data. CCM’s plan to integrate technology, including AI-driven training programs, aims to bridge this gap, aligning with global trends where automation enhances productivity rather than displacing workers.

Challenges are significant. The informal sector’s dominance—87.96% of jobs—reflects a lack of social security and tax contributions, limiting fiscal space. The World Bank warns that without regulatory reforms, informal employment could rise to 90% by 2030, undermining CCM’s formalization goal. Climate risks also threaten agricultural jobs, with 2023’s El Niño drought cutting output by 15%. The manifesto counters this with a target to expand irrigation to 5 million hectares by 2030 and establish a national food reserve, though funding this $2 billion annual investment remains a hurdle given Tanzania’s 40% debt-to-GDP ratio.

Regional dynamics add pressure. Kenya’s job growth averaged 2.5% annually from 2020-2024, per the East African Community (EAC) Secretariat, outpacing Tanzania’s 2.1%. CCM’s tourism push—aiming for 8 million visitors by 2030 from 5.36 million in 2024—could close this gap, creating 1 million jobs if supported by airstrip upgrades and digital marketing. The African Development Bank projects that successful implementation could reduce unemployment from 10% to 6% by 2030, lifting 3 million people above the poverty line.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s rallying cry, “We will empower citizens economically,” encapsulates this vision. The manifesto’s success will depend on execution—streamlining bureaucracy, securing international partnerships, and adapting to climate shifts. If achieved, Tanzania could set a benchmark for employment-led growth in East Africa, turning its youth bulge into a demographic dividend by 2030