Mozambique's $20 Billion LNG Restart Puts East Africa on the World's Energy Map

The International Gas Union's World LNG Report 2026, published on 7 July, ranked Mozambique's LNG project portfolio as the largest in Africa, at close to 45 million tonnes of proposed annual capacity. The report was careful to note that most of that capacity remains potential rather than operating, contingent on financing, security and the pace of construction in Cabo Delgado. The project doing the most to convert that potential into reality is Mozambique LNG. On 29 January 2026, TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné and Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo announced the full restart of construction at the Afungi site, both onshore and offshore. The move followed a decision on 7 November 2025 by the Mozambique LNG consortium to lift the force majeure it had declared in 2021, after insurgent attacks near the town of Palma killed hundreds and forced the evacuation of the site. TotalEnergies site location in Northen Mozanbique More than 4,000 workers, over 3,000 of them Mozambican nationals, are now mobilised on the US$20 billion project. TotalEnergies puts overall completion at roughly 40%, since most engineering and equipment procurement was finished before the four-year suspension. First LNG is targeted for 2029. A second project in the same basin, ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG, is expected to reach a final investment decision later this year. A Region, Not Just One Project Mozambique's restart does not stand alone. Uganda's East African Crude Oil Pipeline, running from the Lake Albert oilfields to the Tanzanian port of Tanga, was more than 82% complete as of April 2026. Tanzania continues to hold substantial offshore natural gas reserves and is advancing its own domestic utilisation plans. Kenya continues offshore exploration along its coastline. The construction of a 20 billion LNG project restarted in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique Viewed separately, each looks like a national story. Viewed together, they describe an energy corridor running from Uganda's oil fields through Tanzania's coastline to Mozambique's LNG terminals, connecting to global shipping lanes across the Indian Ocean. That corridor is already drawing interest from engineering firms, banks, insurers and logistics companies well before every project reaches full production, since energy investment of this scale rarely stays contained within a single sector. Export Revenue Is the Smaller Prize Much of the commentary around LNG projects focuses on export earnings, and Mozambique's project will generate real foreign exchange once production begins. But the larger economic opportunity usually lies in what a country does with gas domestically rather than what it ships abroad. Affordable, reliable natural gas can support fertiliser production, petrochemicals, cement, steel and glass manufacturing, and lower the cost of industrial power more broadly. A country that exports gas sells a commodity. A country that builds industry around gas sells products and jobs, and keeps more of the value chain at home. Mozambique's own government has forecast annual growth approaching 10% as gas projects come online, a figure that assumes the economy captures more than export revenue alone. Competition for Investment, Not Between Countries There is a temptation to treat Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya as rivals for the same pool of energy investment. That framing misses how capital actually moves in the region. Engineering firms operate across borders, banks finance projects in multiple jurisdictions, and international energy companies increasingly assess East Africa as a single investment destination rather than four separate markets. Success in one country tends to build confidence in the region as a whole. At the same time, the countries that offer clearer regulation, faster permitting and stronger institutions are the ones likely to attract the next wave of capital, whether that capital is chasing gas, oil, or the infrastructure services built around them. Security Remains the Variable That Could Reset the Timeline The insurgency in Cabo Delgado has not been resolved, only contained. Violent incidents remain below the levels recorded before the 2021 suspension, but sporadic attacks continue, and analysts tracking the region note that the underlying conflict has been managed rather than defeated. The 2029 first-cargo target for Mozambique LNG assumes sustained security cooperation, including the continued presence of Rwandan and regional forces, through the remainder of construction. That is the risk sitting underneath the optimism in the World LNG Report's rankings. Portfolio size measures what could be built. It says nothing about whether it will be, on schedule, in a province where the last restart took four years to arrive. East Africa's energy story has shifted from discovery to construction, and construction is a slower, more exposed process than announcing a final investment decision. The region's next test is not whether the gas exists. It is whether the corridor being built around it survives long enough to matter. FAQ Why did Mozambique LNG stop construction in 2021? TotalEnergies declared force majeure after insurgent attacks near the town of Palma in Cabo Delgado province forced the evacuation of the project site. When did construction restart? The consortium lifted the force majeure on 7 November 2025, and TotalEnergies and Mozambique's president announced the full restart of onshore and offshore activity on 29 January 2026. How far along is the project? TotalEnergies estimates the project is roughly 40% complete, since most engineering and equipment procurement was finished before the suspension. First LNG is targeted for 2029. Is Mozambique the only East African country with major energy projects underway? No. Uganda's East African Crude Oil Pipeline was more than 82% complete as of April 2026, and Tanzania and Kenya both hold offshore gas and exploration assets in progress. Does a larger LNG portfolio guarantee economic benefit for Mozambique? Not automatically. Export revenue is one benefit, but the larger gain typically comes from using gas domestically to support manufacturing, fertiliser production and lower industrial energy costs. What is the biggest risk to the project's 2029 timeline? Security in Cabo Delgado. The insurgency has been contained but not resolved, and sustained regional military cooperation remains a condition for uninterrupted construction.