One Quarter of Tanzania's Economy Still Comes From Agriculture. Is That a Strength or a Weakness?

DAR ES SALAAM — Agriculture contributed 24.3 percent of Tanzania's GDP in 2025, confirming its position as the country's largest economic sector. The figure has declined gradually from 24.9 percent in 2021 through 24.9, 25.1, 24.9, and 24.3 percent across five years, describing a slow but consistent structural transformation as mining, finance, and ICT grow faster than the agricultural baseline. The case for agriculture as strength Tanzania's agricultural sector produced 23,783,128 tonnes of food crops in FY2024/25, supporting a 130 percent food self-sufficiency rate that insulates the economy from the food import dependence that has generated inflation pressure across several East African neighbours. Uganda's food price volatility, Kenya's periodic maize deficit reliance on imports, and Ethiopia's partial dependence on food aid for drought-affected regions all contrast with Tanzania's net food surplus position. The irrigated area expansion from 727,280 hectares to 983,466 hectares in a single year is the investment that converts weather-dependent food security into reliable annual surplus. The target of 5,000,000 hectares by 2030, supported by the TZS 345.5 billion ASDP II programme and the TZS 209.1 billion irrigation programme across Rufiji, Songwe, Mara, Bugwema, and other schemes in the FY2026/27 project list, is the agricultural infrastructure investment whose delivery would fundamentally change Tanzania's agricultural productivity trajectory. Cooperative strength at 2.8 million members and 336 cooperative-owned processing factories provides the institutional infrastructure through which smallholder farmers can access finance, inputs, and markets at scale rather than individually, the organisational model whose effectiveness has been demonstrated in Ethiopia's coffee sector and Rwanda's cooperative development programme. The case for concern The 46 percent employment share in agriculture against 24.3 percent GDP contribution means agricultural workers generate roughly half the GDP per worker of the economy-wide average. A sector employing nearly half the workforce at below-average productivity is the primary explanation for Tanzania's per-capita income of USD 1,343.91 in 2024, below the target of USD 1,346.70 in 2026, and far below the USD 12,000 upper-middle-income threshold that Vision 2050 targets by 2050. The plan's agricultural productivity targets require average output per hectare to rise substantially, supported by better seeds, fertiliser access, irrigation, pest and disease control, post-harvest management, and market connectivity. The 35 percent post-harvest loss rate, still at 30 percent target for FY2026/27 down from 35 percent baseline, represents a waste of agricultural output at a scale that is itself a significant drag on agricultural sector GDP contribution. The strategic answer the plan provides is not to reduce agriculture's importance but to raise its productivity and value chain depth while allowing faster-growing sectors to raise their share of GDP organically. If manufacturing grows at 9.9 percent annually toward 2030 while agriculture grows at 10 percent, both sectors grow faster than GDP and both become more important in absolute terms even as the economy diversifies.