Can Tanzania Double Down on Growth? GDP Target Set to Reach 7.2 Percent by 2030

DAR ES SALAAM — Tanzania's National Development Plan for FY2026/27 sets a medium-term GDP growth trajectory that rises from the 5.9 percent actual rate recorded in 2025 to 7.2 percent by 2030. Nominal GDP is projected to expand from TZS 186,103 billion in 2025 to TZS 258,954 billion in 2030, an increase of TZS 72,851 billion over five years. The trajectory and what it requires The plan's GDP growth pathway is internally consistent with the investment targets and the sectoral growth assumptions it contains. Agriculture growing at 10 percent by 2030, manufacturing contribution rising from 5.9 percent of GDP in 2025 toward 8 percent by 2030, mining contribution rising from 10.3 to 12.5 percent, and financial services maintaining high growth all contribute to the aggregate trajectory. What the trajectory requires in practice is a set of simultaneous improvements that Tanzania has historically delivered individually but not collectively. Agricultural productivity improvement requires irrigation expansion from 983,000 hectares in 2025 to 5,000,000 hectares by 2030, a fivefold increase whose infrastructure investment is funded but whose delivery depends on implementation capacity at the district and irrigation authority level. Manufacturing growth requires the TISEZA investment pipeline converting from project approvals into operating production capacity whose export revenues contribute to GDP. Mining growth requires graphite, nickel, and rare earth processing facilities coming online to add value to the raw material exports that currently account for the sector's contribution. The private sector dependency The growth trajectory depends heavily on private sector investment maintaining the TZS 60.1 trillion annual commitment projected for FY2026/27. The plan's own data confirms that private sector investment has consistently represented 70 percent of total investment since 2018, growing from TZS 28.7 trillion in 2018 to TZS 54.0 trillion in 2024. Maintaining that trajectory through 2030 requires the investment environment improvements the plan identifies but has not yet fully delivered. The medium-term credit growth target of 17.2 percent in FY2026/27, rising toward 22.4 percent by 2030, is the domestic financial sector contribution to the private investment trajectory. Private sector credit at TZS 44,603.1 billion in 2025, up 23.6 percent from 2024, provides a strong base from which the trajectory can be maintained. The employment dimension The plan targets 1,700,000 new jobs in FY2026/27, against 981,000 created in FY2024/25. Agriculture is expected to generate 661,332, services and tourism 317,045, manufacturing 230,105, commerce 103,908, transport 103,908, and construction 58,401. The agricultural target reflects the labour-intensive character of the irrigation expansion whose delivery is central to both the GDP and employment trajectories simultaneously. Whether 7.2 percent growth materialises by 2030 will depend less on the plan's ambition, which is well calibrated, than on the execution consistency that the plan itself identifies as Tanzania's historically most challenging variable.