Tanzania's Economic Growth: From Resilience to Acceleration – Insights from CCM's 2025 Manifesto

By Uchumi360 Economics Desk DAR ES SALAAM — As Tanzania gears up for its general elections in October 2025, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has unveiled an ambitious manifesto that positions economic acceleration at the heart of its agenda. Titled "Kazi na Utu, Tunasonga Mbele" (Work and Dignity, We Move Forward), the 70-page document charts a course from post-pandemic recovery to sustained high growth, promising to elevate the nation's GDP expansion to levels that could redefine East Africa's economic landscape. But amid global headwinds like inflation and supply chain disruptions, can CCM deliver on its vision? The manifesto opens with a retrospective on Tanzania's economic performance from 2020 to 2024, a period marked by resilience in the face of the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent geopolitical tensions. According to CCM's data, GDP growth averaged around 5% annually, starting at 4.8% in 2020, dipping slightly to 4.6% in 2021, then rebounding to 4.8% in 2022, 5.2% in 2023, and peaking at 5.6% in 2024 (Page 9). This trajectory, the party argues, was fueled by investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and digital reforms, which cushioned the economy against external shocks. Independent sources paint a similar but more tempered picture. The World Bank reports Tanzania's annual GDP growth at 1.99% in 2020 and 4.32% in 2021, reflecting the severe impact of lockdowns. By 2022, Statista data shows a recovery to 4.67%, climbing to 5.06% in 2023 and an estimated 5.44% in 2024. These figures align closely with CCM's narrative, though the manifesto's numbers appear slightly optimistic, perhaps adjusted for preliminary estimates or including Zanzibar's semi-autonomous contributions. For instance, the manifesto highlights Zanzibar's growth surging from 5.1% in 2021 to 7.5% in 2024 (Page 26), driven by tourism and blue economy initiatives, which bolster the national average. Looking ahead, CCM's blueprint aligns with Tanzania's National Development Vision 2050, aiming for upper-middle-income status by mid-century. The manifesto pledges to push growth to 7% by 2030 through diversified strategies, including value addition in mining and agriculture, and blue economy expansion. Page 60 details targets for the blue economy, projecting fish production to reach 2 million tons by 2030 from 800,000 tons in 2025, alongside clove and seaweed output increases. This sector alone could add 1-2 percentage points to GDP, economists say, by tapping into Tanzania's 1,424 km coastline and Exclusive Economic Zone. Analysts at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project a more conservative 6% growth for 2025, citing risks from climate change and commodity price volatility. Yet, CCM's focus on inclusive growth could bridge this gap. The party emphasizes empowering small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with low-interest loans and skills training, targeting youth who comprise 65% of the population under 25. "We will continue reforms to eliminate poverty and elevate living standards," states President Samia Suluhu Hassan in the manifesto's foreword (Page 4), echoing her administration's track record of fiscal prudence. One key enabler is infrastructure. The manifesto builds on achievements like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) expansions, which have reduced logistics costs by up to 40% in connected regions. By 2030, CCM vows to complete mega-projects such as the Bagamoyo Port, potentially unlocking $20 billion in annual trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This could catalyze export-led growth, with agriculture, employing 65% of the workforce, projected to contribute more through irrigation expansion from 983,466 hectares in 2024 to 5 million by 2030. However, challenges loom. Tanzania's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 40%, sustainable but vulnerable to interest rate hikes. The World Bank warns that without deeper reforms in governance and human capital, growth could stagnate at 6% long-term. Critics point to discrepancies in data; for example, Trading Economics reported Q1 2025 growth at 4.9%, signaling a potential slowdown. Moreover, climate risks, droughts affecting hydropower and farms, could derail projections, as seen in 2023's El Niño impacts. Despite these hurdles, optimism abounds. A July 2025 report from the Tanzania Investment Centre highlights an average 6.2% growth from 2000 to 2025, positioning the economy for a $1 trillion target by 2050. If CCM secures another term, its manifesto could accelerate this momentum, transforming resilience into robust expansion. Investors watching from afar might see Tanzania not just as a frontier market, but as East Africa's next growth engine. As the election nears, the real test will be translating promises into policy.